{"id":314,"date":"2025-07-08T14:06:53","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T14:06:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/?p=314"},"modified":"2025-07-08T14:16:21","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T14:16:21","slug":"standardized-test-scores-vs-term%e2%80%91end-gpa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/standardized-test-scores-vs-term%e2%80%91end-gpa\/","title":{"rendered":"Standardized Test Scores Vs Term\u2011End GPA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Here\u2019s a report on the predictive power and correlation between standardized test scores (SAT\/ACT) and term\u2011end GPA, focusing on the most recent, reliable studies with important caveats about institutional context and contradictory findings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Term\u2011End GPA Vs Standardized Test Scores<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Ivy\u2011Plus Colleges (2025 Study)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>A March 2025 NBER working paper analyzing Ivy\u2011Plus institutions found:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Standardized test scores (SAT\/ACT) predict first\u2011year college GPA with a slope four times higher than high school GPA, controlling for socioeconomic variables [1]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Note: This finding is specific to elite institutions (8 Ivy League schools plus Chicago, Duke, MIT, Stanford) and may not generalize to other college types [1]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Omitting test score submission correlates with a FY GPA equivalent to SAT ~1307 [2]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Contradictory Evidence &#8211; University of Chicago System<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Research on broader student populations shows different patterns:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A study of 55,084 Chicago Public Schools graduates found high school GPAs are five times stronger than ACT scores at predicting college graduation [3]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>&#8220;No connection between students&#8217; ACT scores and eventual college graduation&#8221; at many high schools [3]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Term\u2011End GPA Vs Standardized Test Scores Correlation Coefficients Table (2025)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Measure<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Predictor<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Criterion<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Pearson&#8217;s r (approx.)<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Institution Type<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ivy\u2011Plus first\u2011year GPA<\/td><td>SAT\/ACT<\/td><td>FY GPA<\/td><td>~0.32\u20130.35 [1]<\/td><td>Elite institutions only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ivy\u2011Plus first\u2011year GPA<\/td><td>HSGPA<\/td><td>FY GPA<\/td><td>~0.08\u20130.09 [1]<\/td><td>Elite institutions only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>General college population<\/td><td>HSGPA<\/td><td>Graduation<\/td><td>Stronger predictor [3]<\/td><td>Non-elite institutions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>General college population<\/td><td>ACT<\/td><td>Graduation<\/td><td>Weaker\/no connection [3]<\/td><td>Non-elite institutions<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Standardized Test Scores vs GPA: Mixed Evidence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Ivy\u2011Plus Context (Limited Generalizability)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Test scores show stronger prediction at elite institutions where grade compression occurs [1]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Critical Limitation: University of Chicago researcher Elaine Allensworth noted this research studies &#8220;students attending Ivy Plus colleges&#8221; rather than the general college population, questioning its broader applicability [3]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Broader Institutional Evidence<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bates College Long-term Study: 20+ year analysis of ~7,000 students found minimal differences between test submitters and non-submitters [4]\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Graduation rate difference: 0.1%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>GPA difference: 0.05 points<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1728\" height=\"1036\" src=\"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Standardized-Test-Scores-vs-GPA-Mixed-Evidence.png\" alt=\"Standardized Test Scores vs GPA: Mixed Evidence\" class=\"wp-image-318\" style=\"width:700px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Standardized-Test-Scores-vs-GPA-Mixed-Evidence.png 1728w, https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Standardized-Test-Scores-vs-GPA-Mixed-Evidence-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Standardized-Test-Scores-vs-GPA-Mixed-Evidence-1024x614.png 1024w, https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Standardized-Test-Scores-vs-GPA-Mixed-Evidence-768x460.png 768w, https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Standardized-Test-Scores-vs-GPA-Mixed-Evidence-1536x921.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1728px) 100vw, 1728px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">HSGPA&#8217;s Predictive Strength &amp; Grade Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Recent ACT Research Findings<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>High school GPA has become a less consistent predictor while ACT Composite scores have shown relative stability [5]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>HSGPA reliability has declined over time due to grade inflation [5]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Grade Inflation Evidence<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>High school GPA rose from 3.44 to 3.59 between 2017-2021 [6]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ACT scores decreased from 22.34 to 21.90 over the same period [6]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This divergence complicates direct comparisons [6]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Socioeconomic Factors &amp; Predictive Validity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Socioeconomic Controls<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>NBER&#8217;s Ivy\u2011Plus study controlled for race, income, gender, and first\u2011generation status [1]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Even after controls, test scores retained predictive validity at elite institutions [1]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Expert Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Economist John Friedman&#8217;s research found that &#8220;standardized test scores are more predictive than high school grades, even when comparing students of the same family income, race and gender&#8221; [7]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Institutional Response<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dartmouth task force concluded standardized tests better predict first\u2011year GPA and dropout likelihood at their institution, with grade inflation diminishing GPA&#8217;s usefulness [8]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Term\u2011End GPA vs. Standardized Scores: Comparative Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Metric<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Standardized Test Scores<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>High School GPA<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Context<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Elite Institution Prediction<\/td><td>Strong (r \u2248 0.32\u20130.35) [1]<\/td><td>Weak (r \u2248 0.08\u20130.09) [1]<\/td><td>Ivy-Plus only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>General Institution Prediction<\/td><td>Weaker\/Variable [3]<\/td><td>Stronger (5x predictive power) [3]<\/td><td>Broader populations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Long-term Success<\/td><td>Minimal difference [4]<\/td><td>Minimal difference [4]<\/td><td>20+ year studies<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Robustness to controls<\/td><td>High at elite schools [1]<\/td><td>Variable by context<\/td><td>Institution-dependent<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Susceptibility to inflation<\/td><td>Lower (standardized scaling)<\/td><td>High (documented increase) [6]<\/td><td>Both measures affected<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Generalizability<\/td><td>Limited to elite contexts [1]<\/td><td>Broader applicability [3]<\/td><td>Critical limitation<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What Current Data Reveals?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Key Findings with Important Caveats:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Context Matters: Test score predictive power varies dramatically by institutional type [1][3]\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stronger at elite institutions with grade compression<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weaker or negligible at many non-elite institutions<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Contradictory Evidence: Multiple large-scale studies show different patterns than the Ivy-Plus research [3][4]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Grade Inflation Affects Both Measures: Both HSGPA and test score relationships have changed over time [5][6]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Limited Generalizability: Most publicized research focuses on elite institutions, which educate &lt;1% of college students [1]<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Current Research Findings:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>At elite institutions: Standardized test scores show stronger predictive power than HSGPA for first-year GPA [1]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>At non-elite institutions: HSGPA often shows stronger predictive power, especially for graduation outcomes [3]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Long-term studies: Minimal differences between test submitters and non-submitters across various success metrics [4]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Grade inflation: Affects both measures, complicating historical comparisons [5][6]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Critical Limitations:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Most research supporting test score superiority focuses on elite institutions with unique characteristics [1]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Substantial contradictory evidence exists for broader college populations [3]<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Predictive patterns differ for first-year GPA vs. graduation outcomes [1][3]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>For Academic Forecasting: Both metrics provide value, but their relative importance depends heavily on institutional context, student population, and specific outcomes measured. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Claims about the universal superiority of either measure are not supported by the full body of evidence [1][3][4].<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[1] Friedman, J., Sacerdote, B., Staiger, D., &amp; Tine, M. (2025). Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges. NBER Working Paper w33570. Retrieved from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w33570\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w33570<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[2] Opportunity Insights. (2024). Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges. Retrieved from <a href=\"https:\/\/opportunityinsights.org\/paper\/test-scores\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/opportunityinsights.org\/paper\/test-scores\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[3] University of Chicago News. (2024). Test scores don&#8217;t stack up to GPAs in predicting college success. Retrieved from <a href=\"https:\/\/news.uchicago.edu\/story\/test-scores-dont-stack-gpas-predicting-college-success\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/news.uchicago.edu\/story\/test-scores-dont-stack-gpas-predicting-college-success<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[4] Bates College. (2005-2025). More Than Your Score: 20-year Bates College study of optional SATs finds no differences. Retrieved from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bates.edu\/admission\/more-than-your-score-20-year-bates-college-study-of-optional-sats-finds-no-differences\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.bates.edu\/admission\/more-than-your-score-20-year-bates-college-study-of-optional-sats-finds-no-differences\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[5] ACT Leadership Blog. (September 2024). New Post-COVID Study Finds High School GPA is Becoming a Less Reliable Indicator for First-Year College GPA. Retrieved from <a href=\"https:\/\/leadershipblog.act.org\/2024\/09\/gpa-test-score-predictive-validity.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/leadershipblog.act.org\/2024\/09\/gpa-test-score-predictive-validity.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[6] Education Week. (October 2024). Grades and Standardized Test Scores Aren&#8217;t Matching Up. Here&#8217;s Why. Retrieved from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.edweek.org\/teaching-learning\/grades-and-standardized-test-scores-arent-matching-up-heres-why\/2024\/10\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.edweek.org\/teaching-learning\/grades-and-standardized-test-scores-arent-matching-up-heres-why\/2024\/10<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[7] GBH News. (January 23, 2024). Standardized tests aren&#8217;t biased, says new data\u2014but scores reflect society&#8217;s biases. Retrieved from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wgbh.org\/news\/education-news\/2024-01-23\/standardized-tests-arent-biased-says-new-data-but-scores-reflect-societys-biases\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.wgbh.org\/news\/education-news\/2024-01-23\/standardized-tests-arent-biased-says-new-data-but-scores-reflect-societys-biases<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>[8] Dartmouth President&#8217;s Office. (February 5, 2024). Reactivating the SAT\/ACT requirement for Dartmouth undergraduate admissions. Retrieved from <a href=\"https:\/\/president.dartmouth.edu\/news\/2024\/02\/reactivating-satact-requirement-dartmouth-undergraduate-admissions\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/president.dartmouth.edu\/news\/2024\/02\/reactivating-satact-requirement-dartmouth-undergraduate-admissions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here\u2019s a report on the predictive power and correlation between standardized test scores (SAT\/ACT) and term\u2011end GPA, focusing on the most recent, reliable studies with important caveats about institutional context and contradictory findings. Term\u2011End GPA Vs Standardized Test Scores Ivy\u2011Plus Colleges (2025 Study) A March 2025 NBER working paper analyzing Ivy\u2011Plus institutions found: Omitting test&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":315,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","_kadence_starter_templates_imported_post":false,"_kad_post_transparent":"","_kad_post_title":"","_kad_post_layout":"","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-statistics"],"taxonomy_info":{"category":[{"value":6,"label":"Statistics"}]},"featured_image_src_large":["https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Standardized-Test-Scores-Vs-Term\u2011End-GPA-1024x576.png",1024,576,true],"author_info":{"display_name":"gpa_calculate_tools","author_link":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/author\/gpa_calculate_tools\/"},"comment_info":0,"category_info":[{"term_id":6,"name":"Statistics","slug":"statistics","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":6,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":0,"count":26,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":6,"category_count":26,"category_description":"","cat_name":"Statistics","category_nicename":"statistics","category_parent":0}],"tag_info":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=314"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":321,"href":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314\/revisions\/321"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/315"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gpacalculate.com\/statistics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}